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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the biggest shock.

But the current race is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions declining and recent also-rans rising collectively. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still